Sssshhh, I’m mewing*…
On language, younger voters, policy elephants (as well as the odd cat) and a bit of pensions.
The traditional and fairly well tested political view of older voters is that they are more likely to vote than younger voters. Whilst I remain baffled at the election timing, one undeniably strong reason for the Summer as opposed to late Autumn is the weather and its impact on turn out amongst core Conservative supporters. But that isn’t what this post is about.
What the sigma*? Aside from experiencing the perennial parenting hurdle of communicating effectively with my teenagers, the actual language challenge is one I enjoy. There are some days where I literally don’t know what they mean but that’s half the fun of language – it evolves. Understanding and connecting with younger voters now is clearly going to be important at this election, I rather suspect it may be critical come the next.
I am not suggesting there is going to be a youth quake in 29 days’ time but if you look at the trend of voting (here’s a handy link to the British Election Study) amongst younger voters at the last three elections the trajectory is upwards, albeit with relatively small increases. However, and it maybe imaginary on my part, I’d be tempted to punt that there is cut-through happening on social media during this campaign that connects in ways political parties have rarely been able to in the past. You only need to look at the fabulously creative content some of the political parties are pumping out on TikTok to see how seriously these channels are being used.
The harnessing of digital campaigning so effectively undoubtedly goes some way towards the confidence seized on by Reform in relaunching themselves this week. The tactic of repeating something enough times until it is believed is well known and well used on all sides – just look at the fall out over the Conservative Party’s rage-farming* on Labour and tax to see this writ large. Digital campaigning has such reach – from old people (or so my children tell me) using Facebook to teenage Tiktokers – and is well and truly embedded in political communications on a day-to-day basis. But it becomes magnified during elections as unusually large number of the electorate pay attention to politics.
In a post last week, the journalist Chaminda Jayanetti made the perceptive point that ‘Labour’s support is broad but shallow – that means its coming victory could be unusually big, but its eventual defeat could be unusually bad.’ Whether that’s right or wrong only time and potentially a couple of terms in office will tell. But one is certainly clear to me, today’s ‘younger voters’ already have valid grievances coming into this election. If by 2029 the country is not on a clear trajectory to address the most pressing underlying issues, this year’s possible landslide could become a mud bath.
There are so many policy elephants starkly relevant to this demographic in this election. Fundamental issues with real significance for the economy and legions of future votes: Brexit, Climate Change and housing have barely had a look in so far. Issues so politically challenging that neither of the main parties really want to discuss them in any particular detail and any attempt at serious scrutiny is met with reductionist soundbites. And these are the issues that you can feel the tangible effects of now: more expensive to trade with and travel to the EU, global warming that will shape societies if not coastlines, weather that is dangerously erratic as well as increased drought and flooding. The sheer impossibility for many of affording the monthly rent, let alone affording a mortgage. Yeesh* - here’s hoping this will all change with the publication of the manifestos but on past performance, I am not holding my breath. Whatevs!*.
On the basis of the TV debate held on Tuesday evening, the manifestos cannot come soon enough, Labour’s launch has been pencilled in for June 13th. The absence from both parties of any really convincing detail and the lack of candour at this stage over the scale of the challenge to the exchequer should give everyone real pause for thought: unless one of these party leaders has a secret and lucrative planned income stream (Carbon capture and storage? Exporting wind energy? Lithium?), I’m not quite clear how we get out of the economic hole we are in. If no significant tax rises or substantial spending cuts, then what? Magic Money trees were a feature of the last election. Cakeism* it would seem is alive and well.
One of the policy elephants that won’t really get any coverage in this election but absolutely should is savings adequacy. Specifically, pensions saving. The Labour party have pledged an ‘in Government’ review of pensions. Calm* but one would hope that is something they crack on with in short order – I’m pretty sure they are already scoping but this also needs to be a month one priority. Although I think the initial prompt for this review came from the Mansion house reforms around investment last year (that’s certainly how it reads in Rachel Reeves excellent Mais lecture), the adequacy debate needs to feature prominently. How much longer does a future UK government really think it is sensible to leave this challenge unmet – the yawning employer contribution chasm between those in receipt of DB pensions and those building up their DC pots is sobering and stark: roughly 22.2% (DB) vs 3.5% (DC)[1]. Why don’t you check out your pensions expectation gap with this money tool from Money Helper. You might want to do it sitting down though. Possibly with a stiff drink.
Sir Keir Starmer has held out the prospect of a decade of renewal in Government. The UK needs to revisit its relationship with our biggest trading partner. The domestic legislative imperatives are there to meet net zero targets, moreover the evidence of the climate change is there for all of us to see. The housing crisis is real and ensuring the intergenerational divide continues to widen. Over the next five years through the much-anticipated development of pensions dashboards, technology willing, the people already lucky enough to be saving into a pension will be able to shine a spotlight on just how much, or how little they will have in retirement. Given all this and much more besides, the first five years of that renewal need to be super charged. If it is a landslide majority, the Government will need to start using it in earnest from day one.
There’s no doubt that Labour are cooking* and the Conservatives are selling* in this election and a period in opposition for the latter now looks all but inevitable. For a party that has struggled with its identify for the best part of 30 years, that’s no bad thing.
This may well be a landmark election in terms of the political make up of our democracy following July 4th. Whatever the size of the majority, ensuring that the next generation of voters can see the power of Government to transform their lives and opportunities is vital. Yolo*.
*Sssshhh, I’m mewing…be quiet, I am busy doing something else
*What the sigma?...really, I can’t believe it
*rage-farming… the tactic of intentionally provoking political opponents
*yeesh…used to express annoyance
*whatevs…whatever
*cakeism…having it both ways
*Calm…okay/fine
*cooking…doing really well
*selling…doing really badly
*yolo…you only live once
[1] https://www.abi.org.uk/globalassets/files/publications/public/lts/2023/abi-pension-investment-report.pdf